Daily Crypto Briefing· November 2, 2026 · 3 min read

Daily Crypto Briefing - 2026-11-02

Bitcoin traded in its tightest range since October 17 on Sunday, near $77,700, as Binance reopened withdrawals after its $6.3 billion hack. A busy week of midterms, jobs data and Fed-hike pricing starts today.

Lukas Limbach

Good Morning Blocksignal Community,

Executive Summary

Sunday was the calm after the storm. Bitcoin traded in its tightest daily range since October 17, hovering around $77,700, while Binance reopened withdrawals in phases three days after the largest crypto hack on record. Behind the quiet tape, ETF outflows and the odds of a December Fed hike keep risk appetite fragile, and a dense macro week starts today.

Main Briefing

Market action and drivers

Bitcoin spent Sunday inside a range of roughly $77,100 to $77,750, a width of less than one percent and the narrowest daily range since October 17. That is a sharp contrast to Friday, when the range was close to six percent and the market absorbed about $1.54 billion in liquidations. Turnover stayed elevated at roughly $44 billion, well above the 30-day median of about $28 billion, which tells us the quiet price is a pause rather than disinterest. Bitcoin closed October at $77,223, down 7.67% on the month, and the Fear & Greed Index recovered from 30 to 34, still firmly in fear territory. Ether traded around $2,300 and Solana near $95, both moving with Bitcoin rather than on their own news.

Binance restarts withdrawals

The main story of the weekend was Binance. After the roughly $6.3 billion theft from its hot wallets, which blockchain analysts attribute to the North Korea-linked TraderTraitor group, the exchange reopened withdrawals on Sunday in phases, starting with Bitcoin and a first window between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC. Further networks follow only once each chain passes security and stability checks. Binance says it has replaced about 95% of the affected assets from its own reserves, up from 90% a day earlier, and that about $3 billion of the stolen stablecoins is immobilized because issuers can block them. The cause for relief is that the restart went through without a visible disorderly run: Binance reported net customer outflows of $3.64 billion on the first day, which is large in absolute terms but manageable against the total holdings. The risk to watch is the remaining 5% of illiquid tokens and the full proof-of-reserves report the exchange has promised for Tuesday.

ETF flows and positioning

The damage from Friday is visible in the fund data. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $643 million on October 30, the largest single day since June, which pushed net assets to about $98 billion and left cumulative inflows only slightly above the year's start. Sunday itself produced no new flow data, so Monday's print is the first test of whether institutions kept selling into the weekend calm. Strategy is another name to follow: MSCI decides on November 11 whether to remove the company from its indices under rules effective November 30, which could limit a structural buyer of Bitcoin.

Macro backdrop

The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, but with two members voting for an immediate hike, and markets still lean toward an increase in December. That is why a strong labor report this week would matter for crypto: it would reinforce the hike path and pressure risk assets, which already sold off hard on Friday when the Nasdaq 100 fell around 3.5% and semiconductors dropped about 7%. Bitcoin has so far held the $76,300 to $76,600 zone that marked the week's lows, and that area is the line between a base-building range and a retest of the 200-day average near $73,100.

Today's Watch

Today the key datapoints are the first ETF flow numbers since Friday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET with a consensus near 54.6, and Apple and Palantir earnings after the close. The wider week is dense: US midterm elections on Tuesday could shape the outlook for pending crypto legislation, JOLTS job openings follow on Tuesday, ISM Services and the Bank of England arrive midweek, and October nonfarm payrolls on Friday are expected near 62,000 jobs. Binance's proof-of-reserves report is the crypto-specific catalyst, with Circle, Riot and Hut 8 reporting earnings on Wednesday. For Bitcoin, $76,300 is the downside level to defend and about $79,100 the first resistance to clear.