Lukas Limbach

Thursday extended the post-Fed slide: Bitcoin opened near 64,450 and slipped under 64,000, Ethereum lost about 2 percent, and altcoins fell harder as Warsh's hawkish dot plot kept rate-hike risk alive. The US-Iran signing is due Friday, though Trump called the deal not final.

Bitcoin held near $66,300 on Tuesday as the Fed's two-day meeting opened under new Chair Warsh and the US-Iran signing was set for June 19. Ethereum kept its lead as the year's only green major, XRP rode a sixth week of ETF inflows, and sentiment stayed fearful.

Warsh's first Fed meeting landed hawkish: rates held at 3.50-3.75%, but the dot plot now shows nine of eighteen officials expecting a 2026 hike and core PCE lifted to 3.6%. Bitcoin slipped under $65K as Ethereum and XRP gave back gains; the US-Iran signing looms Friday.

Sunday stayed quiet until the close, when the US and Iran announced a peace deal with a signing set for Friday. Crypto recovered on the week with Bitcoin near 64,300, and the brutal ETF outflow streak finally paused. Attention turns to Wednesday's Fed decision.

Bitcoin held near 64K through a quiet weekend session as Friday's Iran-deal relief neither extended nor unwound. ETF outflows showed a first sign of slowing, sentiment stayed in Extreme Fear, and the market turned its eyes to Wednesday's Fed decision.

Bitcoin rebounded toward 63,700 and the whole market caught a bid after Trump claimed the Iran war had ended and oil sold off. But the deal was contested within hours, ETF outflows kept running, and the fear gauge stayed pinned at 12. A relief bounce, not a turn.

Bitcoin bounced back above $63,000 on Thursday after President Trump claimed a deal with Iran sent oil and inflation fears lower. The catch: Tehran denies any deal exists, and spot ETF outflows have not stopped, so the bounce looks more like a squeeze than a turn.

May CPI ran hot at the headline (4.2%) but soft at the core (2.9%), and Bitcoin barely moved, holding the 60K line. With energy driving the print and the Fed's June 17 meeting almost certain to hold, traders are watching the macro, not the chart.